Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
