A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
